- Health reports dont make sense to my study anymore so it's the end of the line for this page. Good luck!
- I think there is something between the Pandemic and shopping.
- Omicron might be more contagious but may have less sting.
- The new comer is a dominating one already!
- End of Alert Levels replaced by Traffic Lights. Is it peaking or is it too early to tell..
- We are now in the mercy of the virus. But if right wing nationalists and religious fundies continue to sabotage safety precauions, then who knows...
- I wonder if there's a cycle of viruses turning over and over in time..
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- The border may be closed to South Africa but both UK and Australia have Omicron variant.
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- Isolation is now part of normal life...
- Unconfirmed results taken from yesterday's recoveries...
- Is the right to die spiralling in the wake of Delta..
- Ok, here’s my take on Traffic Lights system. First, it has been about two years of covid-19, and the government was all about vaccination. It was going well until politics got involved, and antivaxxed protests picked up an alternative opinion to vaccination. The vaccination drive did not just start with the Traffic Lights system.
Second, 6 out of 10 people who die from corvid-19 are unvaccinated. Vaccine like the Pfizer works and has saved lives.
The certificate pass is a risk tool in place to protect staff and customers. Now, I have a right to know what shops do not have risk tools in place for protection of customers. No risk tools in place, no shopping.
So, it might turn out that antivaxxers go to shops with no risk tools in place, and those vaccinated and need protection shop in centres where risk tools are in place.
That’s straight forward than blame blah blah…
- When the going gets tough, dont go shopping..
- Be very very careful. If in doubt, stay home..
- Coronavirus is now the picket fence dividing the antis from the pros or left from right.
- Let’s hope the activities of those who believe not in God but the opinion that the real reason behind coronavirus is hidden behind a conspiracy, does not give rise to a fourth wave. That would be a catastrophe.
A link between areas where the far right assembles and coronavirus is proven in Germany. We have alwasy known that we are not only fighting against coonavirus, but also right wing nationalists and religious fundamentalists.
I would take extra care (PPE) around areas where protesteres are.. - The advisory panel on Covid-19 should perhaps have a social input to make some human sense between science and health especially when the two differ in projections.
The health view downplays the rising wave for over three months now and still climbing, while the epidemiological view follows a pragmatic approach based on data.
The determining factor considers the number of vaxxed people to create a herd immunity organisation, but at the same time, those who have been vaxxed are known to have caught the virus again.
And that according to me is where we are now. People are infected in numbers but the vaccination effect has kicked in to prevent serious condition, recover. Only the vulnerable are at the moment taking a hit. It is also true to the fact that infections have reached over 4k, there are still few victims.
So, while attentions should be focused on the vulnerable – young and old, we should still take a cautionary approach to freedom and be prepared to pull back to red alert or Lockdown.
In the light of that, it's all go for Orange light.. - ...
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- Cannot promise anything...
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- The virus is like a dark force on the rise taking capture and fanaticised..
- Still climbing..
- Under Level 3 Stage 2, services stretch as Zombie Mode kicks in..
- Going higher...
- Are antivaxxers and protestors risking their lives for a lost cause? YES!
- Looks like Delta has hit open road on the rise..
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- The community is key in care of isolated cases...
- It's climbing...
- Very busy with time wasters and anties..
- We've hit 2k...
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- Heading upwards towards 2k now.
- Warning! The vaccine may cause humans to live longer.
- Considering extreme pressure brought about by right wing anti vaxxers and economic freedom against lockdowns, Aotearoa is still sustaining Delta variant better than other countries. It’s becoming clear that regions and areas clogged down by misinformation is behind vaccination numbers and could bear the consequences and unfortunately among them the innocent vulnerable.
- .!.
- blah blah blah!
- Preliminary results, to confirm laer.I think it's time for booster vaccination for the vulnerable, but then passing gate keepers is a big problem.
- MOH websites no longer update their data. Data in here is found in third party's sites in the private sector. Well, it's a well known fact that middle men and women in Public Service identify themselves with the private sector more than with the governemnt or with the public.
- I got the data from a thrid party side so it could be true. Will update as soon as cases are posted.
- The best tool to navigate yourself and your loved ones out of this maze is your mind. Think before you enter is your condition of entry to bars, restaurants, parties, gyms, supermarkets, church, concerts, meetings, schools, sports, everywhere. Don't be sorry! Those who have perished remind us a valuable lesson, it’s not safe. 5 million of them can’t be wrong!
- New Traffic Lights system may take some getting used to it.
- The previous wave peaked at 760 active cases. This one at 769 doesn't have the same restrictive lockdown standards also with unidentified subclusters. Aotearoa is at 85% and 67% vax rate for eligible ones. I think NZ still has a bit more vaccinations to do before fully opening but still with some restrictions such as vax certificates and test results as condition of entry (COE).
- It's rising! So why should anyone be blamed for the consequences of one’s decision to exercise his/her liberal freedom right not to be vaccinated? We the pro vaxxers therefore pro-life can attempt to influence and win them over for their whanau’s sake. Having said that, the death toll from here is the fault of misinformation, anti-vaxxers, and some religious influence and politicalisation.
- Vaccinate, test and stay the cause.
- It looks like the younger population of 12 - 39 year olds are among the reluctant to vaccinate. Time to be cool!
- Most of people hospitalised are Maori and Pasefika and the majority of them are not vaccinated. So where do they get this idea of antivaccination from? Misleading easily led vulnerable targets. Because of mistrust of the vaccine, Russia had only about a third of its population vaccinated. Yesterday, it had recorded 1,000 covid-19 related deaths in a day! It’s your freedom or your life! BBC News.
- Time for Recreation. I go for walks in a local favourite spot which is also used by others to jog, bike ride and hike in groups. Some people either run or ride pass without masks and their mouth open, sweating and puffing. I know their droplets are airborne and drag by their trajectory across others on the track. I really think signs and QR codes should erect on the track to remind people of masks, distances and bubble limitation. I think household links could also be picked up from here.
- It’s a beautiful day before Super Saturday and I’m already tasting the ice cream. Bring it on!
- Keeping the rules in an overcrowded household may be difficult. Vaccination is thus a must...
- I think those who are isolated and not connected need to be reached. But the old Black Magic is not cutting it..we need to raise an underdog to save us!
- No recoveries posted. Population estimated on popular trends.
- No recoveries posted, so results subject to change. Review at 4 pm.
- Unprotected consumers could become collateral damage of economic freedom if communities open for business without protective measures in place. So, if businesses have such measures in place and responsibility for the consequences including for non-vaccinated customers, anything could happen
- Households are stil doing it, cant keep them apart in sickness or in health! If people are infected from a place of interest and results with death, that place is tarnished for life and would never be the same again. So it's better to follow the rules whether it feels like yo yo than easing lockdown to open all day and end up with no customers. If someone wants to risk their life from infection, please dont make it everyone else's business.
- No records for recovery now in three days. The community trend is based on recovery rate so for three days its based on the same recovery rate.
- In an environment that is primed for positive vaccination, the first thing one hears in the morning is negative comments and moaning right from politicians to business, community leaders and professionals. They in turn consciously create a negative social environment for people among consumers and students who are not yet vaccinated. It’s a bit like professional social media but politicalising coronavirus kills.
- Llke a thief in the night; no one knows the day or the hour..be on your guard
- Ok, the new wave under developoment is officially called 'Pandemic of the Unvaccinated' for that very reason. Notice the percentage of vaccination, it looks a bit deceptive. The fact is, there are more Maori who have been vaccinated over 100k than Pasefika. The difference is Pasefika is half the Maori population. And thirdly, 'Vaccination Cetificate' is another tool attempting to protect the vulnerable.
I guess right wing nationalists and religious freedom of antivaxxers have succeeded the greater good and professional advice at the expense of risking everyone’s life in spreading the virus. It didn’t help when the law turned a blind eye on law breakers. - No display due to availability of data
- Oh well, it looks like the end of our daily presentations as data's hard to come by..
- As aspected, Pasefika may not reach 90% vaccination due to right wing anti-vaxx and religious imposition.
- According to the ADHB modelling on border reopening, we are looking at tens of thousands of community cases and hundreds of deaths.
This is a challenge to Pasefika and Maori way of life. Since groups are linked on whanau and kingship, socialising is like an inborn behaviour. a behaviour likely to facilitate infection and death. Socialising is not just visiting when bored, but also hospitality, health visits, helping out and a good feeling of being together. Polynesian people share and do things in groups.
I don’t think the spread of infection is due to low income, but rather of social behaviour. Then again if folks were well off, they might do more shopping and frequent visiting. I think it's time to be stuck-up and be safe.
To avoid physical contacts, folks would have to use digital devices for communication and virtual gatherings including church, meetings and school. - Hello..! It's time to celebrate families coming home, those who went for a bush walk and those stuck overseas. Haere mai to Aotearoa!
- It seems like some people can’t consciously think to save themselves. When in contact with friends and families, serious rules out the window including the vulnerable in the community. I guess they have a right to do as they please. Thank God for the lockdowns, it would have been a different story.
- Ok, considering Pasefika is a small sector of the population (about 8%), the percentage of vaccinations is much larger in its sector than presented against the population. It should be about 78% by now. Still, new infections are rolling in from known and sub-clusters requiring a much higher rate of vaccinations for Pasefika to be safe. Then again, antivaxxers among right wing nationalists and religious impositions could mean Pasefika vaccination rate may not reach 90% or there about.
- Latest polls suggest we are positive about vaccination and lockdowns, an encouraging mood for the time. It looks like most of the remaining active cases are those infected in the last two weeks. Those infected now will take another two weeks to recover. But still lies a risk of a breakout if those few remain careless.
- Those left behind may drag everyone down the spiral. That's why Equity requires support for unequal access to resources in times of need for everyone’s health and wellbeing.
- What does a new norm must look like? So far, the idea of a remote community seems to promote gatherings such as in sports, concerts, eating out, exercise, fashion, travel and surf shopping etc., away from boredom. All of which are good for the economy. So is there an expected boom in consumption next?
- It looks like a fast food pandemic, it craves like a fast food pandemic, it is a fast food pandemic. Whether intentional or not, the facts in age and location of interests certainly have supported the claim on addicts demand on fast food. Of the active cases, Pasefika and Maori remain the most infected and yet the least vaccinated. Stats on other ethnic groups are not made public. The strategy could come close to eliminating the virus if Pasefika and Maori do a massive vaxx effort! The other fact in the trend follows that most of infections are from babies to 29 year olds. Children, studends and young working adults need to be reached not only for their sakes but also for the community at large.
- To protect the young ones who are not able to vaccinate, I have to be vaccinated. The least I can do.
- We are not kidding ourselves to think we can eliminate the virus while opened to the world. But the difference between ten new infections and a thousand is death. Lockdown has given communities a purpose to achieve a collective goal of eliminating the Delta variant spread. People have learned to be consciously aware of real and shared issues of concern, became responsible. For the majority, it’s a success that is evidential of the downward trend, but for a few who are driven by ideology and belief, they repelled in resistance and have attacked essential workers among citizens. It's reassuring to know the Police is onsite and it hasn’t cost the country billions of dollars in the interest of New Zealand security!
- Social Pandemic trend - healthy eating, exercise, and environmental awareness. This is an encouraging value added trend.
The end of Level 4, and hopefully not coming back up here anytime soon. The personal cost to mental health added to economic costs is surely expecting long term social consequences. It has to be said that it only takes one to spoil it for everyone. - Signs of fatigue and fragmentations showing... It might come down to the person who made the bail application but it has fooled everyone in the court system. Just another day in the office has no risk control.
- It’s a natural right not to be infected by those who refuse to observe covid-19 rules. But the natural right is subdued by the exercise of macho right. Not much anyone can do with bullies except the police. Macho right however is liable for the personal and economic cost of the spread.
- 19 of those new cases are hosehold contacts. What does that prove except the virus in the homes! So if these cases are making contacts at home where the unvaccinated children and elderly are, it could be a disaster.
- Ok, of the 1007 projected community (black dotted) cases, there are 468 (blue trend) remaining. That means 539 cases have recovered. But since the growth (green trend) has surpassed com (blue) trend, that means there are other cases in the mix. This could be cases not from the community, or false negatives, reclassifications and walkabouts!
If if wasn’t for the lockdown and preventative measures, the projected total would be 5 times more and increasing the number of deaths. That’s the success of NZ’s policy compared to other countries quantitative easing policy.
According to this site, New Zealand is controlling the virus better than most advanced countries in the world. US’s death toll is growing, along with UK and Australia. Targeted lockdown is working along with help from team five million. If borders should be opened, then full vaccination must be reached and a virus passport is necessary. There has to be a special unit for quarantine and critical infection treatment isolated from public areas. New Zealand has to be a safe zone. - It looks like cases infected in the last two weeks are making up the remainder of the tail, but as long as they drip feed in, it would drag on for a while. Therefore if people are breaching curfew rules or are going back to work, then it makes sense to provide a booster vaxx for targeted vulnerable people at least in Auckland.
- Towards the end of the race when there’s nothing left, the body feels weak and ever desiring to stop. But this is the realm of the twilight where the spirit takes over. It is the transcendence of the material into being. You are doing this for a purpose beyond the material, it’s for love, for life and for the community. Hang in there...
- Still going, saving gas money and on a diet. What more can you say? The map looks a bit deceptively bigger than what really is. It doesn’t highlight success of lockdown achievements. For what is in here, there are about 394 community cases and 182 others. It is relative. It suggests to keep growth (new cases) down and recovery up on this last stretch.
- Community leaders are important essential workers, they inspire and motivate folks to take part.
- Looks like the tail is suspended in the air!
- Trend is scaled down to avoid tipping over. But it looks like the testing campaign is making an impact.
- Ok, recovery exceeds well over trend and it's not making sense. That means I haven't got the data collection right or, a lot of recovered people have not been documented on entry.
- Yes the official calculation is taken from the cumulative total, not the updated total. The orange trend is calculated from cumulative total displayed by the black dotted trend at the top and not the updated total in the blue trend.
- Notice the (empty) gap between the black and orange trends!
- Also, peak is recorded on 3 September at 766 but according to the cumulative total, it is recorded today at 886 and still climbing.
- And as long as it accumulates a projected (abstract) rise, it doesn't acknowledge the real effects of lockdown working by the downward trend.
- The recovery total has overtaken the trend explains that I have missed over 60 cases outstanding plus latest ones. So until I can find the missing cases, I cannot go any further from here.
However I had another look at reports to find new numbers and change the map according. Still, I can't confirm recovery numbers until i find further info.
Auckland is looking good for Monday's review! - Looks like positive cases from September are left in the community plus give or take a few false positives, reclassified and walkabouts. The tail end drag now.
- The only reason why covid-19 cannot be wiped out is people's attitudes. People would follow others to panic shopping as either a behaviour or concern for missing out. But they don't always scan the code on the way in. So what's the point of having many toilet papers if one is infected and die? You don't get famous for slipping through the border undetected. The only heroes in this pandemic are essential workers!
- The upward rise of recovery is included in the overall downward trend. So it’s only indicating a daily rate of recovery but, it looks like positive cases have reached another plateau. Notice a slight pump on growth shows a wave on the trend. The growth plateau however may not level the overall trend because of a significant number of recovery.
The conscious effort of the team five million is an essential tool in elimination strategy. The media has also been effective in damping down the ‘social virus’. For those who have not been vaccinated be they antivaxxers or other are most likely to be infected creating a second wave worse than before. - 79 recovered but I cannot confirm if all in Auckland. It takes a little over two weeks to recover I guess with vaccinations, PPE and other precautions.
- Sadly, one death recorded today. 55 recoveries including 2 in Wellington. Focus is now on recovery.
- 33 cases recovered. Obviously good news on the slide! I think I got the numbers sorted.
- 11 cases have either recovered or returned false positive, while one went walkabout. This is the time we remember what a great man said;"Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country," this is not the time for complaining or politics. It's time for understanding and helping out.
- I'm not sure they seem to have different numbers at different times. It makes sense to me that the number of tests taken the day before influences the outcome of my prediction, but a number I dont have access to.
- One reclassified border-case added to the trend total. The trend will descend once positive cases recover. So far, 3 recovered yesterday. As for a mutation, I couldn't verifry the link and text on a report of a new variant, but doomsday may refer to the agresssive nature of a variant like Delta variant. Scaremonger!
- 3 recovered cases taken away from trend total. Well, that's a hard right turn! That’s a massive 9 percent dip from 16 percent growth yesterday. Are we preparing to land in the next couple of days or so, hope so. Thank you for keeping us safe!
- The general opinion among experts follows that it’s not growing exponentially and may take well into next week before any signs of dipping. There were more possible cases in the community than originally thought of. And listing super spreaders like households, Schools, Church, Sports as places of interest can easily build up a backlog.
- Growth has in fact dipped by 1 percent compared to yesterday. But the mere bulk of backlog has increased by the same. So I would say this is a trajectory effect where growth is dragged upward by the rise. It means there’s a lot happening with analyzing test results.
20 per cent growth yesterday had dispersed 80 per cent rise. Compared to the 24 per cent growth and 67 percent rise the day before, indicates a 4 percent variation from 5 percent three days ago. So the trend is dipping by a percent a day but within the margin of error. Is the magic number 67 today? - There’s 8 case difference since Wednesday is either the maximum capability of test resources has reached or growth is beginning to level. Still catching up on the backlog.
- From day one (d1) the average spread rates between r2.5 and r3 cases. From d3, the spread rate picks up from r3.5 to r4.5. Between d1 and d10, the virus has bolted and people may not know about. That means there could be a super spreader in hot spots such as Supermarkets, Takeaways, Gyms, Schools, Churches etc., to accelerate the spread and accumulate out of sight. One cannot be blamed for something he/she did not know about. About d7 of incubation period, the alarm is raised and restricted measures are put in place including social spacing, masks, hand washing and isolation. Also people rush to vaccinate. While restricted measures are put in place, the average total has accumulated from d7 to about d10. This doesn’t make sense on the chart as the total positive shows an upward rise while the daily new cases show a flat. That means restricted measures have kicked in, but the bulk of accumulation is still catching up. This is the most sensitive time and restricted measures are crucial to control. The same time resources are stretched and essential workers’ fatigue is showing. This is the time where human error is inevitable. An opportunity for populous politics. Now this has worked well with a moderate (reasonably behave) population, but it is difficult with volatile populations – bigger population, government in place, antivaxxers etc. For this I think the use of the law may work. The stampede for survival has already shown that some people are left behind. They include people enduring ailments, the sick, the elderly and the poor.
- The trend shows it can be controlled and eliminated. I think the reason for the climb is because the variant had a head start before restrictions were put in place. When restrictions kicked in that peak is reached and receding. Covid-19 may not go away altogether, but obviously requiring an upgrade of lifestyle to live with it. Thanks to the person who raised the alarm.
- Living with Delta variant is like handling dangerous goods. If an accident happens, dousing it with fuel only spreads it very quickly. It’s impossible to damp it down but you know, trust begins to fade in the source…
- Totally out of wack! I think there is a slight delay in test results becoming available. So if the contacts number is made available and some in that number are not yet tested or their result not available, then it makes a difference in the rate calculation. Therefore, the available results may have the results of some contacts earlier and not related to the current day or week. Thus it’s possible that some positive cases may not have known about the lockdown or may have been infected before the positive case was identified. And blame on anyone is not justified, as that has also put my prediction calculation out of wack.
- Notice the curve on prediction compared to the rise on success rate, it’s a reflection of hard work and acknowledgement for workers including essential workers and everybody. It’s a good sign!
- Here’s what I have learned about Delta variant this week alone.
When preventative measures including PPE, spacing and vaccinations is put in place, it directs immediately to day one onwards. But those unknown contacts beforehand could still be infected and be counted.
The more people infected the more contagious the spread. That’s why isolation works.
Overall, the sooner preventative measures are put in place the better the virus can be contained.
And of course when you have the best virus busters in the world, who else can you call - 0800! - I think butchers should be essential with strict restrictive control not only because the meat is perishable, but also a healthy food. It may prevent some family visiting fast food outlets. Well, having said that, meat are not exempted from preservative treatments.
- There’s an idea, to disperse overcrowding in hotspots such as KFC and Burgers, is to open other food outlets targeting health choices as essentials, but with strict restrictions.
- And there is nothing worse than being stuck in your home with a noisy person upstairs, help!
- I want to make an assertion in here for research purposes in the application of the term ‘social space’. Social space may refer to a physical area for whatever social activities. Social spacing is the space between individuals while they are interacting in social activities, such as talking or socializing. So in My Social Relations, ‘social spacing’ is a 2 metre restriction or other under covid-19 conditions.
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Dont drop your guard, covid-19 is hanging around † ✔